Bitcoin price could drop to $38.000 according to NYDIG bear market analysis

Research firm NYDIG draws a striking comparison: the current Bitcoin downturn increasingly resembles the major bear markets of 2014, 2018 and 2022. If the pattern repeats, the Bitcoin price could fall to a cyclical low of around $38.000 to $39.000 later this year. That is a significant further decline from the current price of $64.100.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Nearly 50% down from the all-time high

In October 2025, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of approximately $126.000. Since then, the price has fallen by nearly 50%, putting the decline in line with previous major corrections within the four-year cycle. In its quarterly report, NYDIG states that both the depth and duration of the current downturn are comparable to what investors have experienced before.

As also noted in earlier analyses of the borrowed strength behind the Bitcoin rise, NYDIG points out that recent price movements are primarily driven by leverage rather than genuine spot market demand. This leaves the market vulnerable to further corrections as that leverage is unwound.

Bitcoin underperforms almost all other assets

The chart published by NYDIG shows that, so far in 2026, Bitcoin is the worst-performing asset in a broad overview of investment categories. With a year-to-date return of minus 32.9%, Bitcoin sits at the bottom of the list, well behind Silver (minus 18.2%), Gold (minus 7.2%) and the Swiss Franc (minus 1.9%). Technology stocks, on the other hand, top the ranking with a return of 32.7%, followed by small-cap growth stocks at 27.0%.

That Bitcoin is performing worse this year than traditionally safe-haven assets such as US Treasuries and the Swiss franc raises questions about Bitcoin’s role as a hedge. According to NYDIG, analysts and investors waiting for a bottom are closely watching whether momentum and value-oriented buyers step back in, something that has so far failed to materialise. Whether the market still attracts new capital for a real recovery therefore remains the big question for the rest of 2026.