Bitcoin Price Still Far Removed from Historical Bottom Zone According to On-Chain Data

The Bitcoin price is currently trading around $65K, but anyone who thinks the bottom is already behind us is going against what several on-chain valuation models are showing. Analyst Wedson points to a set of metrics that historically only entered extreme undervaluation zones during real cyclical bottoms, and we are not there yet.

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In short:

• Several on-chain models indicate that Bitcoin is still trading well above the historical bottom zones.
• Indicators such as the LTH Realized Price, True Market Mean Price and CVDD together provide a structural picture of where the market stands.
• The current price of $65K is still clearly above the levels that counted as extreme undervaluation in earlier cycles.

What the charts show

Based on data from Alphractal, analyst Wedson shares three charts that visualise Bitcoin’s on-chain price dynamics. The charts show a range of structural levels, including the Long Term Holder Realized Price, the Structural Market Lower Band, the True Market Mean Price, the Balanced Price, the Delta Price, the Active Realized Price and the CVDD. These are cost-price models based on what different groups of investors paid for their Bitcoin on average.

What stands out is that in earlier major market cycles, such as the bottoms of 2018 and 2022, the Bitcoin price fell far below most of these levels. That created the extreme undervaluation that in hindsight served as the ideal entry point. At this moment, Bitcoin is still trading well above the majority of those model levels.

No guarantee, but a structural signal

The analyst states that the current market structure does not yet point to the kind of capitulation that characterised historical bottoms. That does not automatically mean the price will fall further, but it does indicate that, based on these metrics, the market is not yet in the territory where long-term investors piled in en masse during earlier cycles.

It is a signal that is all the more relevant now that Bitcoin is under pressure. For example, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana are deep in the red this year and nearly 23% of Bitcoin miners are making daily losses. At the same time, ETF flows tell a different story: nearly $754 million is flowing into Bitcoin ETFs on a weekly basis, which indicates that institutional investors see the dip as an opportunity. Amid that noise, the on-chain models offer a reference point for anyone who wants to understand where Bitcoin stands structurally relative to historical cycles.