Glassnode: Bitcoin Recovery Is a Local Rally, Not a Trend Reversal

Bitcoin is trading at $72K at the time of writing, up 11.6% in 24 hours, but according to on-chain analyst Glassnode there is no real trend reversal yet. The price is still below two key cost bases, the profit ratio over the past three months points to sustained selling pressure, and demand from US investors on the spot market has not yet returned. Glassnode concludes that any recovery should for now be regarded as a local rally.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In short:

• Bitcoin trades below the Short Term Holder Cost Basis of $68.500 and the True Market Mean of $75.800, which confirms the capitulation phase.
• Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at around 25%, far below the more than 60% seen in previous bear markets.
• ETF flows are stabilising and futures sentiment is improving, but the Coinbase Premium remains negative.

Two cost bases confirm capitulation phase

According to Glassnode’s weekly on-chain report, Bitcoin has been in a confirmed bear market since the beginning of February 2026, after the price fell below both the True Market Mean of $75.800 and the Short Term Holder Cost Basis, which has since declined to $68.500. The fact that both levels now sit above the current price is a classic hallmark of the capitulation phase, the period in which cyclical bottoms have historically been formed.

The pain for investors remains relatively limited compared with previous cycles. The Relative Unrealized Loss, a measure of total unrealised losses as a percentage of market capitalisation, peaked at around 25% in the current episode. In earlier bear markets that figure was above 60%. This points to a shallower and more broadly distributed decline, with a large portion of the coins on offer bought around the election period at prices significantly below the all-time high.

That lower cost level distributes the latent selling pressure more evenly, but it also means it takes longer for this overhang to work off. Glassnode therefore expects further sideways movement before a new upward trend emerges.

Profit ratio not yet at bottom threshold

The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which compares realised profits and losses over a 90-day period, currently stands at 0.75. Historically, this ratio falls below 0.5 at true selling exhaustion before a cyclical bottom is reached. There is as yet no sign of a recovery towards the 2 needed to speak of a genuine trend reversal.

Macroeconomically, the US interest rate also plays a role. The ten-year yield is climbing towards 4.7%, which keeps financing conditions tight and raises the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. The dollar is weakening, but that has hardly helped Bitcoin so far. Gold is trading near $4.400 and oil around the mid-$80s, while Bitcoin lags behind these hard assets. This suggests that Bitcoin is behaving as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not as an inflation hedge.

Futures improve, US spot market remains absent

There are also cautious signs of recovery. The 30-day directional premium on the perpetual futures market has turned positive again, indicating that leveraged traders are once again willing to pay for a long position. Flows into Bitcoin ETFs have also stabilised after hitting a low of minus 5,000 Bitcoin per day earlier this summer. In early August there were even periods of significant inflows.

Yet the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, indicating that US buyers on the spot market have not yet returned. As long as that premium remains negative, the recovery is driven mainly by derivatives rather than direct purchases on the spot market. Glassnode states that only when yields fall and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio recovers towards 2 can there be a genuine trend reversal instead of a local rebound.