Major Bitcoin Players Drive Market Towards Final Stress Test

The Bitcoin market is under severe pressure. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that large players are selling en masse at a loss, while short-term holders are deep in the red. Analyst MorenoDV states that three signals together form a stress pattern typical of the final phase of a bear market. The Bitcoin price currently stands at $61K, a drop of 2.6% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

Large Players Sell Massively at a Loss

CryptoQuant charts reveal that large Bitcoin holders, also known as whales, have accumulated more than $2.5 billion in realised losses over the past few weeks. That is a notably large amount, especially when compared to the preceding period, when the same group was regularly taking profits. Anyone wanting to learn more about how whales influence the market will find plenty of examples from this period.

At the same time, the Binance Whale to Exchange Flow shows a sharp increase in the inflow of large amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges. Such movements typically indicate selling pressure, as coins sent to an exchange are often intended for liquidation. The 30-day sum of the exchange whale inflow is heading toward $6.6 billion, while the Bitcoin price has been struggling in the $60.000–$64.000 range for some time, as was previously noted.

Short-Term Holders Are Deep in Trouble

A third worrying signal is the unrealised loss position of short-term holders. The STH whale unrealised profit and loss has fallen to as low as -$16.45 billion. This means that a large group of relatively recently purchased Bitcoins is now significantly underwater. Historically, this kind of pressure can lead to further capitulation, where panic selling pushes the price even lower.

MorenoDV summarises it as three mutually reinforcing signals: capitating whales, distribution in a weak market, and a fragile short-term group on the verge of selling. Earlier on-chain data already indicated that short-term holders are sending Bitcoin to exchanges at a loss en masse, and the MVRV ratio is also approaching a historical undervaluation zone. Whether this is indeed the final stress test for Bitcoin, or whether more pain lies ahead, remains uncertain for now.