Bitcoin nears decisive signal for first time since 2023

Bitcoin is about to give a technical signal that last occurred in January 2023. The price is currently testing the weekly Supertrend indicator at $79.700, while Bitcoin trades around $78.800 with a gain of 1.2% over the past 24 hours. According to analyst Quinten François, a weekly close above that level would deliver the first bullish signal on the weekly chart in more than two years.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In short:

• Bitcoin is testing the weekly Supertrend at $79.700, a weekly close above it gives a bullish signal
• The previous comparable signal in January 2023 led to a rise of 85% in twelve months
• Confirmation is not yet complete, the current weekly candle closes on Sunday

What is the Supertrend and why does this signal matter?

The Supertrend is a technical indicator that, based on volatility and price movements, indicates whether a market is in an uptrend or downtrend. As long as the price remains below the Supertrend, the indicator is red. A weekly close above it flips the indicator to green, which traders refer to as a bullish flip.

On the weekly chart of Bitcoin, that level is currently at $79.700. Bitcoin previously hit resistance around $78.000, but the recent rally brings a breakout above the Supertrend within reach.

What did the previous signal deliver?

The last time Bitcoin broke through the weekly Supertrend to the upside was in January 2023. According to François, that moment led to significant price gains in the months that followed: 21.5% in three months, 32.5% in six months and 85.1% in twelve months. Measured against the peak of that cycle, the gain was as much as 455.8%.

Those historical returns are, of course, no guarantee for the future. François himself points out that confirmation only applies with an actual weekly close above $79.700. The current weekly candle closes on Sunday at midnight UTC and is still open at this moment.

Bitcoin nears $80.000 while markets remain tense

The timing coincides with a period of heightened attention to Bitcoin’s behaviour around $80.000. Earlier, inflows to exchanges peaked around that same level, which often points to increased selling pressure. Bitcoin also showed bearish divergence around $80.000, a signal that technical analysts view as a warning.

On the other hand, Bitcoin previously approached $80.000 with strong spot support, and the realized cap rose by $46 billion over the past week, pointing to new capital inflows. Whether the weekly close will ultimately be enough to flip the Supertrend will become clear on Sunday.