Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index on Longest Negative Streak Ever

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index shows a historically negative streak. For 50 consecutive days, the index has been in the red, the longest negative streak since the launch of this indicator. This is reported by Wu Blockchain based on data from Coinglass. The most recent value stands at -0.0742%, while the Bitcoin price is currently hovering around $63K, up 1.6% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

A record that far exceeds the previous one

The current negative streak began on 19 May and has now lasted fifty days. That is significantly longer than the previous record, a negative streak of forty days that ran from 16 January to 24 February this year. Even the so-called “1011 crash” only produced a negative streak of about thirty days at the time, making the current situation all the more striking.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the difference in Bitcoin price between Coinbase and other major exchanges, notably Binance. A positive value generally indicates stronger demand from the US, while a negative value signals the opposite. A persistently negative index therefore points to weaker US institutional demand or short-term pressure on the market.

What does this say about US demand?

Analysts often link prolonged negative premiums to waning interest from institutional players in the US. That ties in with recent developments around outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which in recent weeks amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars. Yet the Bitcoin ETF market recently also saw an inflow of $266 million on 6 July, indicating that sentiment is not uniformly negative.

The question is whether the negative premium on Coinbase is a harbinger of further downward pressure, or whether it signals a bottom instead. Analysts such as Michaël van de Poppe expect a recovery towards $68.000, while research firm Bernstein sees Bitcoin even recovering to $150.000. Whether the record streak on the Coinbase Premium Index is a temporary phenomenon or a structural signal will have to become clear in the coming weeks.