CoinShares: Bitcoin remains below $80.000 until Fed provides clarity

According to asset manager CoinShares, Bitcoin’s recent rise has been driven mainly by macroeconomic developments, not crypto-specific factors. Falling inflation and weaker US employment figures are causing investors to factor in fewer further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin, which is sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real interest rates, is responding strongly to this. The price currently stands at $77K, up 6.5% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin is available at OKX and Bybit.

In short:

• CoinShares sees $80.000 as a key resistance level for Bitcoin in the short term.
• The rally is being fuelled by macroeconomic factors, including lower inflation figures and weaker US labour market data.
• Whales have started accumulating again, but that is not yet enough for a sustainable breakout.

Bond market gives Bitcoin tailwind

According to CoinShares, the bond market tells a similar story. Short-term rates have fallen, indicating that bond investors no longer expect further hikes from the Fed. Long-term rates, on the other hand, have risen, with the 30-year yield reflecting growing concern about the sustainability of US government debt.

That combination of declining expectations of monetary tightening and growing doubts about the US fiscal position has historically been favourable for Bitcoin. CoinShares argues that any intervention by the US Treasury in long-term rates would likely be interpreted by the market as loose monetary policy, and thus as support for Bitcoin.

Earlier, Bitcoin already rose to $79.500 after a bond intervention, and the short squeeze on Binance Futures also contributed to the rally.

Whales accumulating again, but breakout still pending

On-chain data shows that large Bitcoin holders, also known as whales, have stopped selling and have started accumulating again. This has contributed to the recent price rise and to the convincing move above the 200-day moving average, a level historically associated with stronger upward trends.

Nevertheless, CoinShares expects the market to remain in a sideways range for now, with $80.000 as a critical upper boundary. According to the analysts, a decisive breakout requires a clearer signal from the Fed that further rate hikes are truly off the table.

Institutional inflows do point to growing confidence. Digital asset investment products attracted $2.2 billion this week, the largest weekly inflow of the year. Bitcoin products accounted for approximately $1.6 billion of that, making the total inflow since the start of the year positive again.

Jackson Hole as the next catalyst

According to CoinShares, the next major test moment is the Jackson Hole symposium. With the Fed offering little concrete forward guidance, investors are paying close attention to comments from policymakers, including Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. If his remarks confirm the cautious direction markets are already beginning to price in, that could trigger a breakout above $80.000.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETF market is also showing positive signals: Bitcoin ETFs had already attracted $606 million on 20 August. Whether that momentum continues depends, according to CoinShares, largely on what the Fed communicates in the coming weeks.